摘要：

Evaluation of various scenarios of construction rates, freight growth, and fuel-price escalation shows that electrification of the nation's high-density railroad routes is a cost-effective alternative when compared with the cost and output of synthetic-fuel plants. If 15,000 miles of the existing rail routes, which handle more than 30 percent of the nation's freight, were electrified today, the cost of the diesel fuel saved would be equivalent to $1.00/gal or less. After a 30-year period of construction and with a reasonable freight growth, the resulting 25,600 miles of electrified rail network would save more than 300,000 bbl of oil per day over the amount that would have been used by not electrifying. The investment per fuel equivalent produced or saved is approximately the same for the two alternatives. However, the fuel plant has a specific and limited output, whereas the growth in freight traffic that can accrue on electrified rail will generate increasing substantial returns on the investment, an investment that has the potential to last 50 years. The principal barrier to electrification is the large investment required relative to the railroad's financial condition. Preliminary analyses of costs and returns, however, indicate that rail electrification is a feasible energy-conservation opportunity. A mature technology, as shown by more than 60,000 route miles worldwide, it would provide substantial returns on investment and improve productivity. Given the escalation of fuel prices and a national desire for energy independence, electrification should be of high priority on the list of energy policies.

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