A New Method of Predicting US and State-Level Cancer Mortality Counts for the Current Calendar Year
摘要：
Every January for more than 40 years, the American Cancer Society (ACS) has estimated the total number of cancer deaths that are expected to occur in the United States and individual states in the upcoming year. In a collaborative effort to improve the accuracy of the predictions, investigators from the National Cancer Institute and the ACS have developed and tested a new prediction method. The new method was used to create the mortality predictions for the first time in Cancer Statistics, 2004 and Cancer Facts & Figures 2004. The authors present a conceptual overview of the previous ACS method and the new state-space method (SSM), and they review the results of rigorous testing to determine which method provides more accurate predictions of the observed number of cancer deaths from the years 1997 to 1999. The accuracy of the methods was compared using squared deviations (the square of the predicted minus observed values) for each of the cancer sites for which predictions are publi
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DOI：
10.3322/canjclin.54.1.30
被引量：
年份：
2004
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